Bioprocess engineering, clean energy and Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF)
BagaFuel paves the way to the future of sustainable aviation: it integrates the regulatory framework and market opportunities with BTL technology, capable of transforming biomass into liquid fuels, generating positive environmental impact and a solid value proposition.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is defined as a "drop-in" replacement kerosene that meets international aeronautical standards and can be blended with Jet A or Jet A-1 without modifying engines, aircraft or existing infrastructure. This compatibility makes it the most direct and mature lever to advance the decarbonization of commercial air transport in the short and medium term (Shahriar & Khanal, 2022; Raji et al., 2025).
Currently, certification under ASTM D7566 standard endorses multiple SAF production pathways. Once blended, the fuels are recategorized as Jet A/Jet A-1 according to ASTM D1655 standard. In most routes, the allowed blend is up to 50%, although demonstration flights with 100% SAF have already been conducted, with equivalent safety and performance results (Braun, Grimme, & Oesingmann, 2024).
Regarding feedstocks and processes, SAF is not a single technology, but a set of diversified routes: HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), Fischer–Tropsch (FT), Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and Power-to-Liquid (PtL). Each pathway offers different emission reductions, with potential for up to 80% lifecycle CO₂ mitigation, depending on the origin of inputs (used oils, agricultural waste, algae, forest biomass, municipal solid waste, etc.) and the efficiency of the conversion process (Watson et al., 2024; Liang et al., 2025).
Beyond environmental impact, SAF contributes to energy security by diversifying supply sources and reducing dependence on oil, which is critical in the face of price volatility and geopolitical tensions (Wandelt, Zhang, & Sun, 2025). However, its scalability depends on the availability of sustainable feedstocks, the construction of robust logistics chains and the implementation of effective regulatory policies (Wang, Ting, & Zhao, 2024; Bardon & Massol, 2025).
In this context, international organizations such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) recognize SAF as the main axis for decarbonizing the sector. In fact, it is estimated that this fuel should contribute around 65% of the necessary reductions to achieve the net zero emissions target by 2050 (Xu et al., 2025; IATA, 2024).
At the international level, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) adopted in 2022 the aspirational goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2050, accompanied by the implementation of the CORSIA scheme (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation), designed to limit CO₂ growth in international flights through the use of eligible fuels and offset mechanisms. After its pilot phase (2021–2023), Phase 1 (2024–2026) establishes a baseline threshold at 85% of 2019 emissions, and Phase 2 will be mandatory from 2027 (ICAO, 2024).
In parallel, the industry —through the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and the ATAG's Waypoint 2050 initiative— expects sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to contribute around 65% of the reduction needed to meet Net-Zero 2050, especially with an expected acceleration in the 2030s if policies, competitive costs and feedstock availability converge (ATAG, 2021; IATA, 2024; Wandelt, Zhang & Sun, 2025).
In Europe, in addition to the ReFuelEU Aviation mandate, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) reserved from 2024 about 20 million emission allowances (≈€1.6 billion) to cover the cost gap between fossil kerosene and sustainable fuels, reinforcing the economic signal towards transition (European Commission, 2025; Mayeres et al., 2023). In the United States, the SAF Grand Challenge sets a production target of 35 billion gallons annually by 2050, consolidating North America as one of the main hubs for innovation and deployment of this fuel (Akter, Huang & Dwivedi, 2025).
Currently, aviation represents between 2% and 3% of global CO₂ emissions, and this share is projected to rise to 20% by 2050 if strong measures are not applied (Braun, Grimme & Oesingmann, 2024; Wang, Ting & Zhao, 2024). Recognizing this threat, both ICAO and IATA have reaffirmed their commitment to Net-Zero 2050, where SAF becomes the most direct decarbonization lever, complemented by new aeronautical technologies, operational improvements and offset schemes (Liang et al., 2025; Khalifa et al., 2025).
In the European Union, Regulation (EU) 2023/2405 ("ReFuelEU Aviation") requires suppliers to reach 2% SAF in 2025, 6% in 2030, 20% in 2035, 34% in 2040, 42% in 2045 and 70% in 2050, with increasing sub-targets for e-fuels; the official text details the percentages and schedule.
The United Kingdom starts in 2025 with 2%, advances to 10% in 2030 and to 22% in 2040, combining mandate and tradable certificates, plus a revenue certainty mechanism. In Asia, Japan aims for 10% substitution with SAF by 2030; while Singapore will require SAF use on flights departing from Changi from 2026 through a passenger levy (initial target 1%, towards 3–5% in 2030).
In the Americas, the United States accelerates supply with tax credits: 40B (2023–2024) and 45Z (2025–2027) pay between $1.25 and $1.75 per gallon depending on GHG reduction. Brazil approved the Combustível do Futuro law with gradual reductions in domestic flights from 2027. In Mexico, progress is being made with ASA and sectoral roadmaps, although without a specific national mandate yet (EUR-Lex, 2023; GOV.UK-Department for Transport [DfT], 2024; Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore [CAAS], 2024; U.S. Department of the Treasury & Internal Revenue Service [IRS], 2023; Argus Media, 2024; H2LAC, 2024).
SAF deployment depends heavily on clear regulatory frameworks and economic incentives that reduce the cost gap with fossil kerosene. In Europe, the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation establishes increasing mandatory blending targets: 2% in 2025, 6% in 2030, 20% in 2035 and up to 70% in 2050. These quotas include a sub-target for electricity-based fuels (PtL), which drives both production and technological innovation.
In the United Kingdom, the SAF mandate will begin in 2025 with 2% blending, rising to 10% in 2030, accompanied by a tradable certificate scheme that provides flexibility to airlines and producers.
In Asia, Japan set a target of 10% SAF for 2030 in international flights, while Singapore will apply a passenger surcharge from 2026 to finance the transition towards initial use of 1%, scaling up to 5% in 2030.
In the Americas, the United States advances with robust tax incentives: the 40B credit, valid until 2024, and the 45Z, which will apply between 2025 and 2027, offer between $1.25 and $1.75 per gallon depending on the emission reduction achieved. In parallel, Brazil enacted the Combustível do Futuro program, which establishes gradual blending mandates from 2027, leveraging its potential in sugarcane, soy and eucalyptus. In Mexico, although there is no federal mandate, Airports and Auxiliary Services (ASA) and various airlines have initiated sectoral roadmaps and pilot adoption projects (Mayeres et al., 2023; Lau et al., 2024; Nguyen & Vuong, 2025).
SAF technological pathways range from hydrotreatment of esters and fatty acids (HEFA) —currently the most mature, based on used cooking oil (UCO), fats, oils and greases (FOG) and tallow— to Fischer–Tropsch (FT) synthesis from syngas generated with biomass or waste. Also included are the Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) route, which uses ethanol or iso-butanol, and the Power-to-Liquids (PtL) approach, through which e-kerosene is produced from renewable hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide.
The ASTM D7566 standard maintains listed and updated annexes describing quality criteria, blending limits and specifications of these routes. There are also co-processing schemes in refineries, although limited in percentage.
The PtL vector stands out for its scalability potential and for offering emission reductions exceeding 90% when produced with additional renewable electricity and atmospheric or biogenic CO₂. However, it still faces bottlenecks related to high hydrogen costs, CO₂ capture and power purchase agreements (PPAs).
The technological maturity of HEFA, together with the diversification of feedstocks —urban, agricultural, forestry waste and non-food crops— allows for a multi-feedstock portfolio that balances availability and performance. In parallel, advanced routes and synthetic aromatics are being developed to enable higher blends and approach flights with 100% SAF (ASTM International & IATA, 2024; U.S. Department of Energy, 2024; NREL, 2024; Transport & Environment, 2025).
SAF production is articulated through these routes certified by ASTM International, each with advantages and challenges. The most consolidated, HEFA, already has large-scale commercial operations. The Fischer–Tropsch route offers great flexibility in feedstocks, although it requires high investments in gasification plants. ATJ technology is emerging as strategic in countries with strong bioethanol production, such as Brazil or the United States. Finally, PtL presents the greatest emission reduction potential, but its viability depends on the rapid reduction of associated energy costs.
Additionally, recent research explores emerging methods such as hydrothermal liquefaction, fast pyrolysis and innovative techniques like non-thermal plasma, which could further diversify the technological matrix (Zahid et al., 2024; Raji et al., 2025; Xu et al., 2025).
The main challenge for mass adoption of SAF is the cost differential compared to conventional kerosene, which is typically 2 to 4 times higher depending on the technological route, the feedstock used and local incentives. This gap explains why supply and final investment decisions (FID) are still lagging behind regulatory targets. In response, various jurisdictions have implemented support mechanisms to close the gap: the European Union has reserved 20 million allowances in the EU ETS to cover cost differentials, the United Kingdom combines a mandate with tradable certificates and a revenue certainty mechanism, while the United States grants 40B and 45Z tax credits for production. In parallel, long-term purchase contracts (offtake agreements) and "book-and-claim" schemes are proliferating, allowing geographical decoupling of the production site and physical consumption of SAF. As supply chains mature and capacity factors and logistics improve, costs will tend to decrease, particularly in routes like Power-to-Liquid (PtL) when low-cost renewable electricity and eligible CO₂ are available. However, the bankability of projects in the 2020s requires clearer and more stable price and volume signals (Financial Times, 2025; European Commission, 2025; Department for Transport [DfT], 2025; U.S. Department of the Treasury & Internal Revenue Service [IRS], 2024).
Recent meta-analyses of techno-economic assessment (TEA) studies show how the minimum selling price of SAF (MJSP) varies significantly between routes and regions, with feedstock cost being the most determining factor. For example, SAF produced via HEFA (from used oils and animal fats) is more competitive, while advanced routes like PtL, although offering greater emission reductions, still present high costs due to the price of green hydrogen and CO₂ capture. To improve viability, industrial integration schemes —such as flexible biorefineries and byproduct valorization— and innovative financial mechanisms are being explored, including long-term purchase contracts and book-and-claim systems. In the future, the combination of economies of scale, technological innovation and stable regulatory frameworks is expected to progressively reduce the cost gap, especially in regions with abundant renewable energy (Farooq et al., 2025; Chireshe et al., 2025; Watson et al., 2024).
Well managed, SAF can significantly reduce lifecycle emissions compared to fossil jet fuel, although the ranges depend on the technological route and the feedstock used. For example, the HEFA route based on waste lipids (used cooking oils or animal fats) achieves high reductions, while advanced technologies like e-kerosene through Power-to-Liquid (PtL) can exceed 90% reduction if they meet electrical additionality criteria and use biogenic or air-captured CO₂. In contrast, feedstocks with indirect land use change (ILUC) risk can substantially degrade the benefits. Regulations such as the EU's RED III on renewable fuels (including RFNBOs) and CORSIA sustainability standards delimit Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodologies and eligibility criteria. Recent evidence also emphasizes the need for traceability and control to avoid fraud in supply chains —for example, in UCO imports— and ensure climate integrity (ICCT, 2024; Transport & Environment, 2025; IATA, 2025; ICAO, 2025).
The use of SAF provides additional environmental benefits beyond CO₂ reduction. Different LCA studies show greenhouse gas reductions between 50% and over 90%, depending on the route and feedstock used. SAF derived from waste (lignocellulosic biomass, animal fats, used oils) present additional advantages by avoiding impacts associated with agricultural land use. For their part, PtL fuels achieve the greatest climate benefits when produced with green hydrogen and sustainable CO₂. Additionally, SAF contributes to improving local air quality by reducing sulfur and particulate matter emissions in airports and urban areas, although some routes may increase NOx generation, requiring optimization of combustion conditions. In a broader approach, SAF favors the circular economy by valorizing waste and byproducts, and generates co-benefits aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially regarding affordable energy, climate action and health (Khalifa et al., 2025; Pescarini et al., 2025; Raji et al., 2025).
Global SAF supply still represents less than 1% of total jet fuel consumption, and its scaling faces several critical challenges. Among them stand out: i. limited availability and competition for sustainable feedstocks —especially waste lipids—, ii. high capital and operating costs, particularly in the Power-to-Liquid (PtL) route, where access to green hydrogen, eligible CO₂, PPAs and grid connection are determining, iii. permitting times, logistics integration and blending needs, and iv. the speed of homologation to allow higher SAF proportions, including 100% SAF flights and the incorporation of synthetic aromatics. To these challenges is added the uncertainty around indirect land use change (ILUC) impacts, which could reduce the net emission balance if not properly managed (IATA, 2025; European Commission, 2025; Transport & Environment, 2025; Reuters, 2025).
However, the opportunities are clear. In the short and medium term, mandates with strong regulatory signals in the European Union and the United Kingdom stand out, along with instruments that cover cost differentials (EU ETS, carbon taxes, LCFS) and fiscal certainty schemes like the 40B/45Z credits in the United States. The standardization of traceability mechanisms such as the IATA SAF Registry (book-and-claim) is also gaining relevance, as well as the development of industrial clusters that integrate CO₂ capture, renewable hydrogen and synergies with other production chains (chemical, cement, paper). In parallel, the proliferation of pilot projects and demonstration plants in Brazil, the U.S., Europe and Asia, along with the creation of public-private consortia and access to innovative financing (green bonds, carbon credits, SAF certificates), are paving the way. Additionally, emerging technologies such as advanced gasification with Fischer–Tropsch, hydrothermal liquefaction and the use of agricultural waste —including sugarcane and agave bagasse— reinforce feedstock diversification. The 2025–2035 period will be decisive for closing technology and bankability gaps, scaling production and achieving the blending mandates planned for 2030–2040, clearing the path towards 2050 (Lau et al., 2024; Xu et al., 2025; Bardon & Massol, 2025).
By 2050, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is consolidated as the central piece to align air transport growth with climate neutrality. The sectoral roadmap estimates that around 65% of mitigation will come from SAF, complemented by improvements in operational efficiency, more advanced aircraft and, in the long term, the incorporation of emerging technologies such as hydrogen and electrification in specific short and medium-range segments. However, the main challenge is not technical —since SAF is already commercially used— but economic and industrial, related to investment, supply and cost competitiveness.
Achieving this goal depends on three fundamental conditions: (1) stable and ambitious regulatory frameworks, supported by blending mandates, emissions trading schemes and tax incentives; (2) the progressive reduction of cost differentials through innovation, economies of scale and strong demand signals —including long-term contracts and certificate markets—; and (3) the credible expansion of routes with higher environmental integrity, such as PtL based on additional renewable electricity and biogenic or directly air-captured (DAC) CO₂, along with traceable waste biomass under strict sustainability criteria.
In this framework, the 2025–2035 window will be decisive for building the plants and supply chains that allow compliance with the 2030–2040 mandates and lay the foundations for a deep energy transition in aviation. If achieved, by mid-century SAF will cease to be a niche fuel to become the new energy standard for global aviation, consolidating a future of more sustainable, resilient air mobility aligned with international climate commitments (IATA/ATAG, 2021–2025; ICAO, 2024–2025; European Commission, 2025; Yan et al., 2025; Watson et al., 2024; Bardon & Massol, 2025).
References
Civil aviation is one of the strategic sectors for the global economy, but also one of the greatest challenges in the fight against climate change. It is estimated to contribute about 5% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accumulating more than 32 billion tons of CO₂ since 1940, with accelerated growth in the last two decades due to the growth of commercial flights (Ibarra-Lizárraga, Santos-Ballardo & Ambriz-Pérez, 2024). Faced with this scenario, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) emerge as the most viable alternative to replace fossil jet fuel. These biofuels present physicochemical properties equivalent to conventional kerosene, but with a significantly lower carbon footprint. Mexico, thanks to its biodiversity, biomass availability and emerging regulatory frameworks, has the opportunity to position itself as a regional leader in SAF production and in the transition towards more sustainable aviation.
Mexico has aligned its aeronautical strategy with international commitments promoted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the CORSIA scheme, whose objective is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In this sense, the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) and Airports and Auxiliary Services (ASA) presented in 2024 the first National SAF Roadmap, which articulates seven strategic axes: feedstocks, regulation, infrastructure, certification, research, technology and financing (Global Energy, 2025). This document sets a precedent in Latin America by establishing guidelines to integrate academia, industry and government in promoting aviation biofuels.
However, the Mexican energy transition presents structural challenges. Despite having set goals to reach 50% clean generation by 2050, reality shows a strong dependence on hydrocarbons, with proven oil reserves equivalent to 47–50 years of consumption, concentrated mainly in Campeche and Tabasco (Medina Jiménez, Magaña López, Mballa & Ibarra Cortés, 2025). In addition, recent changes in energy policy have prioritized strengthening PEMEX and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), which slows down diversification towards renewable energies. Still, the government's "100 steps for transformation" proposal includes measures to maximize the use of renewables, electrify transportation and promote advanced biofuels (Sheinbaum Claudia, 2024).
Biomass availability in Mexico constitutes a strategic advantage. Among the most promising feedstocks are agave bagasse from the tequila and mezcal industry, lignocellulosic residues from sugarcane, waste oils, animal fats and municipal solid waste (Sacramento-Rivero & Güereca, 2025). These sources allow different conversion routes, either through thermochemical processes such as gasification and pyrolysis, or biochemical ones such as alcoholic fermentation.
New frontiers in the valorization of agro-industrial waste are also being explored. An example is the wine industry of Baja California, whose effluents, highly polluting, can be converted into SAF, levulinic acid, green biodiesel and high-value coproducts. Through a biorefinery scheme simulated in Aspen Plus, 99.99% reduction in chemical oxygen demand (COD) was achieved and estimated profits of over 245 million USD annually (Guzmán-Martínez, Caltzontzin-Rabell, Martínez-Guido & Gutiérrez-Antonio, 2025).
Complementarily, the exploration of sargassum and marine macroalgae in the Mexican Caribbean constitutes an innovative option for the production of bioturbosine, since these feedstocks capture CO₂ during their growth and solve environmental problems in tourist areas (Super Channel 12, 2025). This diversity of resources positions Mexico as a country with high SAF production capacity in a circular economy scheme.
SAF development in Mexico is articulated around the technological routes approved by ASTM D7566 standard. Among them stand out: HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), from vegetable oils and animal fats; ATJ (Alcohol-to-Jet), using ethanol derived from sugarcane or sorghum; and FT-SPK (Fischer–Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene), based on biomass gasification and catalytic synthesis (Caltzontzin-Rabell, Reséndiz & Gutiérrez, 2024).
Various life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have shown that SAF produced under these routes in Mexico can reduce CO₂ emissions between 12% and 56% compared to conventional jet fuel, depending on the feedstock used (Sacramento-Rivero & Güereca, 2025; Ibarra-Lizárraga et al., 2024). Computational modeling using Aspen Plus has demonstrated the technical and economic feasibility of these routes, confirming that integrated biorefinery processes allow obtaining multiple coproducts and improving SAF profitability (Guzmán-Martínez et al., 2025).
The environmental impact of SAF in Mexico must be evaluated from a comprehensive perspective. While the use of biomass and waste allows significantly reducing the carbon footprint, there are also risks associated with the use of energy crops that could compete with food production and increase pressure on water resources. Research in tourist destinations such as Los Cabos has identified the carbon footprint of air tourism and the need to introduce alternative fuels to mitigate its impact (Galindo Fuentes, 2024).
From a social point of view, SAF development presents clear benefits. Among them are job generation in rural communities, the valorization of agro-industrial waste and the reduction of environmental liabilities. However, social acceptance and community participation are fundamental to ensure that SAF projects are not perceived as extractive, but as an opportunity for inclusive development (Medina Jiménez et al., 2025).
SAF implementation in Mexico not only responds to an environmental need, but also to a business opportunity. According to MIT estimates, the country will require more than 49 billion USD between 2025 and 2050 to finance SAF production and distribution infrastructure (MBN Staff, 2025). These investments range from biorefinery plants to logistical systems at airports.
The nearshoring context offers Mexico an additional advantage, positioning it as a strategic hub to export SAF to the United States and Canada. Recent examples include pilot projects in Tamaulipas, supported by the French Development Agency, which seek to trigger regional value chains around aviation biofuel (Government of Tamaulipas, 2025). These projects show that the Mexican energy transition is not only technical, but also financial and geopolitical.
SAF development in Mexico has also been accompanied by a growing offer of specialized contests and events that promote technological innovation and linkage between academia, industry and government. According to specialized media, national competitions have been organized to identify innovative biofuel projects, as well as energy fairs where biorefinery prototypes, circular economy models and investment proposals are presented (Chávez Meza, 2025).
These spaces not only foster collaborative ecosystems, but also function as showcases to attract private capital and international cooperation. By making local initiatives visible, these contests allow startups, universities and research centers to connect directly with investors interested in Mexican SAF potential. They also fulfill a relevant social function by disseminating among the population the importance of reducing emissions in aviation and the role of biofuels in the fight against climate change.
The Mexican landscape on sustainable aviation fuel reveals a complex but promising scenario. There are abundant resources, a growing body of scientific research and a regulatory framework under construction. However, high production costs —two to seven times higher than fossil jet fuel— and the need for clear fiscal incentives are barriers that must be overcome.
Mexico has the opportunity to consolidate itself as a regional leader in SAF production if it can articulate consistent public policies, large-scale industrial projects and innovation incentives. The key will be to transform waste into energy, link science with the private sector and generate investor confidence. By 2050, SAF can not only contribute to fulfilling climate commitments, but also become an economic engine that drives the competitiveness of Mexican aviation in the global scenario.
References
Agaves, popularly known as magueys, represent one of the most emblematic biological heritages of the American continent. About two hundred species have been identified within the Agave genus, all native to America (CONABIO, 2025). Of these, about one hundred and fifty grow in Mexico, positioning the country as the main center of diversity of this plant group, with approximately 75% of the known species (Secretariat of Agriculture and Rural Development [SADER], 2016).
Adapted to arid and semi-arid environments, magueys have developed remarkable survival strategies in the face of water scarcity and extreme temperatures. Their anatomy —fleshy leaves, thick cuticles and an efficient CAM-type photosynthetic metabolism— allows them to store water and reduce loss by evaporation, making them true models of biological resistance (García Mendoza, 2007).
In addition to their resistance, agaves stand out for their reproductive versatility. They can reproduce sexually, through the pollination of their spectacular inflorescences, or asexually, through offshoots that emerge around the mother plant. This double strategy ensures their permanence in ecosystems where few species manage to thrive (García Mendoza, 2007).
Objective > 60% CO₂ reduction (LCA) with feedstock traceability and on-site renewable energy.
Model combining SAF/blends sales, environmental credits and O&M services, with modular scaling and strategic alliances.
Agave has accompanied Mexico for centuries, not only as a crop, but as part of its national identity. It is the basis of tequila and mezcal, beverages that represent the country worldwide.
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Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) have consolidated as the most viable solution to decarbonize the aviation sector: they significantly reduce CO₂ emissions without replacing fleets or infrastructure, accelerating the migration towards a future driven by green energies.
Mexico advances towards the decarbonization of its aviation through the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Thanks to its biodiversity, biomass potential and emerging policies, the country is positioned as a regional leader in biofuels, driving a sustainable energy transition towards 2050.
Mexico has competitive residual biomass and consolidated logistics chains.
Prefabricated compact units that can grow by adding modules that transform agave bagasse and other biomass into sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). An innovative design, ready for pilot plant.
Employment, investment and positioning of a SAF hub in Mexico and Latin America. Emissions reduction >60% with LCA. Use of agave bagasse and agro-industrial residues strengthens circular economy.
In Mexico, agave is a symbol of identity and pride. From tequila to mezcal, it represents history, tradition and connection with the land.
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